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The satellite presentation of the cyclone consists mainly of a circular area of deep convection with little evidence of banding features. Scatterometer data suggest that the system is just below tropical storm strength. Some slight strengthening could occur today (August 16) while the cyclone is over marginally warm waters. However, in 1-2 days, SSTs should drop below 24°C, and this should cause the system to weaken into a remnant low in 2-3 days. The official intensity forecast is close to the corrected consensus model prediction.

Although there is some scatter in the center fixes, the depression is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 340/10 knots. Over the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move northwestward to west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Later in the forecast period, the weakening system will likely turn westward or a little south of westward as it moves in the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is a little to the left of the previous NHC forecast and about in the middle of the track guidance suite.

Information provided by NHC.